The Abilene Paradox

    Four adults are sitting on their porch in 104-degree heat in the small town of Coleman, Texas, some 53 miles from Abilene.  They are engaging in as little motion as possible, drinking lemonade, watching the fan spin and occasionally playing the odd game of cards.  One of the adults suggests that they take a trip to Abilene for dinner.  Another adult says, “sounds like a great idea, I haven’t been to Abilene in a long time”.  The other two adults think the idea is crazy but don’t see the point of upsetting the others and go along for the ride.

    The adults climb into their un-airconditioned Buick and set out for the long, hot, dusty ride to Abilene.  When they arrive at the cafeteria, the food is bad.  They return home four hours later exhausted from the trip.  One of the adults dishonestly says, “it was a great trip, wasn’t it”?  One of the adults that really didn’t really want to go in the first place said that she would have preferred to stay at home but went along because the others were so enthusiastic.  They all finally realize that no one wanted to go to Abilene in the first place and would have preferred to sit comfortably on the porch.

    The Abilene Paradox speaks about the behavior of people in groups and how the lack of communication can lead very intelligent individuals to make very poor decisions.  Many of us have been in groups where a suggestion was made that no one wanted to say “no” even though we felt that the idea was not worthy of merit.  We know from talking with each person alone that each and every one of them thinks it is a stupid thing to do yet when it comes time to make a group decision, they chose to do the stupid thing.  That is the Abilene Paradox: private versus public versions of reality.  This is the mismanagement of agreement, not disagreement.  It is all made possible by a public silence regarding what each individual knows to be true.  Does this sound like your work, or some group or committee that you have participated in?  How about government?  We could even extend the thought into how we deal with our financial lives.

    Why does this happen?  One explanation is that we, as humans, fear the worst possible outcomes.  In a group we hesitate to confront anyone over the fear that we might be wrong and would look foolish or because if we didn’t go along we would be ostracized from the group.  Even riskier, we might lose our jobs or position within the group.  With a mind full of negative thoughts, we tend to act very conservatively when we are in a group.  We worry about events or consequences that would likely never occur.  As a group, we are very reluctant to take any kind of risk.  This is simply our human nature and our aversion to risk.  We can thank our overactive and exaggerated imagination that limits our thinking about the positive possibilities.

    Sometimes fear is a good reaction.  It keeps us from getting hurt, or it can also be a very strong emotion that can limit us from achieving success.  One lesson we can learn from this is to discuss your thoughts openly, particularly with your investments and financial future, so that you don’t find yourself taking a trip to Abilene.